Bicol braces for drought as El Niño set to intensify

Bicol is among the regions that could face worsening dry conditions as a strong El Niño is expected to intensify in the coming months, with all provinces in the country potentially experiencing drought by the end of March 2027, according to the Department of Science and Technology (DOST).

DOST Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. issued the warning during a press briefing on the El Niño phenomenon when asked how many provinces could be experiencing drought by March next year.

“By end of March, lahat na probinsya,” Solidum said.

For Bicolanos, the forecast could mean heightened pressure on water supplies, agriculture and other activities that depend on sufficient rainfall, particularly if the prolonged dry spell extends into the first half of 2027.

Solidum said the government could not yet determine how low the country's water reserves could fall because this would depend largely on how much water is conserved and how resources are managed.

He said the National Water Resources Board would oversee the allocation of available water for drinking, irrigation and power generation as supplies become more constrained.

Solidum also clarified that El Niño does not mean there will be no rain. Rainfall may still occur, but the long-term forecast indicates that the amount of water brought by rainfall will be lower.

“Pag sinabi naman nating El Niño, may mga time din na uulan siya. But the long-term forecast ay mas kokonti ang tubig na ibabagsak,” he said.

The DOST-PAGASA climate advisory issued on Sept. 23 said a strong El Niño was already active in the Tropical Pacific and was expected to intensify into a very strong El Niño between September and December 2026. The phenomenon is forecast to continue through the first half of 2027.

El Niño is associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in the Philippines.

For Bicol, a prolonged reduction in rainfall could affect farm production, water availability and other sectors dependent on regular rainfall, making early water conservation and preparedness important as the dry conditions develop.

The national government is implementing a whole-of-government response to the expected impacts of El Niño, but Solidum’s warning also highlights the need for households, businesses, farmers and other water users to conserve supplies as early as possible.

With drought potentially reaching all Philippine provinces by March 2027, Bicolanos are being urged to treat water conservation not only as a response to an approaching dry spell but as an early preparedness measure.