El Niño Has Entered the Chat

If it rains tomorrow, does that mean El Niño is not a problem?

Not necessarily.

That may be the easiest thing to misunderstand about the phenomenon now affecting the country. El Niño does not mean the Philippines will suddenly become one giant oven with a “No Rain” sign hanging over it.

It can rain.

And we can still have drought.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a Strong El Niño is currently present and is expected to intensify into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December 2026, potentially persisting through the first half of 2027.

That does not mean every day until 2027 will be hot and dry. PAGASA says tropical cyclones, the Southwest Monsoon, thunderstorms and other weather systems can still bring rain even during El Niño.

The bigger concern is how much rain we get, when we get it, and whether it is enough to meet our needs.

Drought is not simply having no rain. It is having insufficient rainfall over a prolonged period compared with what an area normally needs.

And this is already becoming a Bicol concern.

The Philippine News Agency reported in September that PAGASA forecast Camarines Sur to experience drought, along with dry conditions expected in other parts of the country.

That matters because less rainfall can mean less water for farms, households and livestock. It can affect crops, water supplies and eventually food prices.

The problem with drought is that it does not always arrive dramatically.

It can begin quietly—with a water source slowly declining, soil becoming drier, crops struggling and reservoirs failing to recover as quickly as they normally do.

The Department of Health has also warned about the health risks associated with increasing heat and advised people to stay hydrated and avoid strenuous activities during the hottest parts of the day.

The government is already preparing for potentially worsening conditions. The Daily Tribune reported on October 5 that Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum warned that all provinces could potentially experience drought by March 2027 if dry conditions worsen.

But perhaps the most useful thing to remember about El Niño is this:

Preparation should begin before the problem looks like a problem.

We are used to responding to weather when it becomes dramatic. A typhoon arrives, we secure the roof. A flood rises, we look for higher ground.

El Niño is different.

Its warning may come long before its consequences become obvious.

So if it rains tomorrow, enjoy it. But don't assume the problem has gone away. The question is not whether it will rain.

The question is whether there will be enough water when we need it.