More rain looms as short-lived La Niña may begin by September

By Ernesto Delgado

LEGAZPI CITY --- The Philippines needs to brace for a potentially intense typhoon season, as the country could be experiencing La Niña conditions as soon as September this year, the weather bureau warned Tuesday.

In a statement, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), said that while the weather is expected to remain neutral from August to October, there is an increasing chance of short-lived La Niña conditions developing between September and November.

Pagasa explained that right now, there are no strong signs of either the warm weather pattern known as El Niño or the cool pattern called La Niña.

La Niña happens when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are significantly cooler than usual, the weather bureau said.

Elaborating on this during a Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon interview on Wednesday, Pagasa Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said the likelihood of La Niña conditions emerging in the coming months has exceeded 50 percent.

“Fifty-three to 58 percent, so more than half po ng tinatawag nating (of what we call) climatological probability,” Solis said.

She noted that the typical probability of La Niña at this time of year is around 30 percent, a figure significant enough for La Niña conditions to occur.

The phenomenon may cause more tropical cyclones to form in or near the Philippine Area of Responsibility, she said.

It could also make the country susceptible to weather patterns that bring in a lot of moisture, such as storms and other rainy conditions.

This typically begins in September and can lead to more rainfall than normal in various regions of the country, she said.

Regions expected to receive above-average rainfall include Mimaropa, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley, and the Cordillera Administrative Region.

“By October, November, and December, we see a high chance of heavy rains in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, the Bicol Region, and the Visayas, mostly Eastern Visayas as well as Central Visayas, including the Davao Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Caraga, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao,” Solis said in a mix of Filipino and English. (PIA Bicol/Masbate)