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The Man who could be Pope, Part 6



“A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges is not Christian. This is not in the Gospel.” Pope Francis


In the final analysis, the man who could be anointed next pope will depend on what Pope Francis wants for the future of the Catholic Church and who he believes will carry out his vision for a universal church. One thing is for sure; his pick will make history as the first pope from a particular geography, if the trend continues: Pope John Paul II (first from Poland), Benedict XVI (Germany), and Francis (South America, Argentina). Will it be the first Asian pope or American?


There is an old wisdom that an American will never be pope for a host of reasons that can be categorized as cowboy politics, Wall Street, and Hollywood. In November, Americans will elect the 47th president of the Union and the choice is between the “lesser of two evils,” according to Pope Francis. The pope, who was asked while on the way back from his Southeast Asian tour, could have easily ignored the question posed by a news reporter about the upcoming U.S. election, but he decided to add a little spice to an already overheated, albeit messy, contest.


The fact that he waded in and added his voice to an already messy campaign tells me that the pope is highly invested in the outcome. The pope clearly recognizes the dilemma many American Catholics face in this election, and he was telegraphing his punches with who to pick – Kamala Harris. Pope Francis has declared the year 2025 as a jubilee year themed “Pilgrims of Hope” - a year of hope for a world suffering from wars and conflicts, diseases, and climate change.


President Harris will be a better partner than Donald Trump to address these issues. One of the hot topics today is immigration from the southern border. Trump demonizes immigrants and looks at this as a security issue and is threatening to implement mass deportation of immigrants if elected. He inflicts fear. Harris, while trying to appear ‘tougher” on border security, is pro-immigration and has a bleeding heart for the poor.


On abortion, Trump markets himself as pro-women but was proud having appointed the justices who overturned Roe vs. Wade. Harris supports abortion and frames it as healthcare and a right for women. Pope Francis agrees to the “sacredness of the unborn, BUT, he averred that just as sacred are the lives of the poor, the elderly, those needing healthcare, victims of human trafficking, and new forms of slavery.”


In this context, an American pope will ignore and overcome the negative stereotypes of Americans and will endeavor to help arrest declining Catholicism in North America. Yes, making inroads in China and giving prominence to the impressive Catholic conversion stats in Asia and Africa is important; yet the fact is, he cannot ignore the declining trend for Catholicism in America and the unprecedented opportunity of an American being God’s next representative here on earth.


According to Pew Research, 20% of the U.S. population are Catholics which is roughly 74 million – that’s more than most countries in the world except for Brazil, Mexico, and the Philippines with the first two being south of the border. This is 4% less than when it was 2007. Four percent sounds small but when you put numbers to it, it means that roughly 3 million have left the Catholic Church. That is a lot of ground to recover, but with immigration from Central and South America, the possibilities are real.


Most U.S. Catholics are White (57%), Hispanic (33%), Asian (4%), and other races for the rest. A more troubling statistic from the Pew data is that the White majority are ages 50 and older, while Hispanic Catholics tend to be a lot younger. This is one reason why some well-known dioceses and archdiocese have filed for bankruptcy. Catholic Church sex abuse cases in the United States have drained the church’s coffers and older White Catholic immigrants from Europe that were a reliable source of support are dying.


Pope Francis is clear-eyed about the ramifications of such demographics which leads me to believe that the pope is banking on young people for the future of the Catholic Church in the United States. The pope is aware of the imbalance between the younger Catholics and older Catholics. According to a 2023 Washington Post article, Catholics over 55 are the primary funders of Catholic congregations, and that even those with fixed incomes give more. But he’s got more important things in mind.


One negative stereotype for Americans is their propensity to engage in wars and conflicts overseas. The fear from a policy standpoint is that an American pope will get dragged into the quagmires of wars and conflicts because of such cowboy foreign policy. The other side of such a stereotype, however, is the positive role the United States takes in maintaining a world order grounded on peace and rule of law.


Hope springs eternal and the pope might just see the next four years under the first female and Black president as a Renaissance period for Catholicism in North America, a year to reestablish a proper relationship with God and experience Amoris Laetitia (The Joy of Love). Imagine combining the power of the papacy and the power of the presidency makes an awesome, if not far-ranging, power that could reshape the next world order.


Which begs the question as to who could be the first American pope? There are so many good candidates and there is even one who could pull a big upset. The leading contenders from North America based on the results of 2013 conclave are third and fourth placer, respectively, Cardinals Marc Ouellet (Canada) and Sean O’Malley – the first American to score highly in any papal election. Cardinal O’Malley, however, is over 80 years old and ineligible to participate in the conclave.


Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan of New York would have been a great candidate too but like O’Malley, he is too old to be eligible. Which brings us to Joseph Cardinal Tobin, Archbishop of Newark, Pope Benedict’s appointee as a member of the Roman Curia as Secretary of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life. Pope Francis created him Cardinal in 2016 and Archbishop of Newark.


Furthermore, the Holy Father appointed him as a member of the Joint International Commission for Theological Dialogue between the Catholic Church and the Orthodox Church, Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, Synod of Bishops, Congregation for Catholic Education, Pontifical Council for Culture, Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity, Council for the Economy, and Congregation for Bishops.


Cardinal Tobin speaks English, Spanish, Italian, French and Portuguese, and reads several other languages. He has participated in many Synods of Bishops and has been a member of the Canon Law Society of America since 1985, according to Wikipedia. (To be continued)

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