Watch out! El Niño and Flooding, a Paradox for Bicol

Here is something that made my inaanak in CamHigh, Brixie, wonder and become curious. She asked me: How can we talk about El Niño—heat, dryness and drought—and at the same time see flooding? Isn’t that a contradiction? Oo nga.

She began researching and quickly found the answer through AI. El Niño does not mean that it will never rain, she told me. It generally brings hotter and drier conditions and increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in many parts of the Philippines. But other weather systems can still bring heavy rain, thunderstorms and flooding. And this is where climate change makes things more complicated. We can have too little water for weeks or months, and then too much water in just a few hours.

We see the farmer worrying about dry soil and water supply, then suddenly dealing with flooded fields after a heavy downpour. We see people cleaning canals and waterways, only to find themselves dealing with floodwater hours later. Communities beside rivers and along the coast face different risks at different times.We remember October 24, two years ago, when much of Naga City went under water and many families felt unsafe because rescue boats were not readily available. Today, the threat of heavy rains and flooding combine with that of the El Niño phenomenon.

This is the paradox we need to understand. Climate risk is no longer simply about choosing between flood and drought. We have to prepare for both. Climate change may sound too global when we hear about carbon emissions, rising temperatures, warming oceans and international agreements. But eventually, it comes down to very local questions: Do we still have water to drink, or just floodwater? Can our farmers continue to produce food? Can our roads, schools and communities withstand extreme weather?

These are questions we can already begin answering. We do not have to wait for another major flood before clearing waterways, nor for a serious drought before conserving water. We identify evacuation routes, protect important documents, prepare emergency supplies and strengthen early-warning systems. Preparedness is knowing what to do before disaster comes, not after.

For Bicol, preparedness must become more than a call for help or ayuda from the politico. How many LGUs use hazard maps and climate data in plannin? How many have made sure the drainage systems, waterways, evacuation routes and warning mechanisms are working? With public funds at their disposal, they should be able to make families and communities safer.

I have always advocated for rescue-cum-livelihood boats located in every barangay where they are needed. Protecting watersheds and keeping canals clear should be an LGU-led responsibility. Farmers need timely information and support, better water management and climate-resilient practices. Schools, businesses and institutions need safe spaces and need continuity plans so essential services can continue when extreme weather disrupts normal life. There are public funds for disaster prevention and mitigation that shoud reach the people who need them most.

Can we stop El Niño? If only we could stop every typhoon or heavy rainfall. But we can choose to be prepared. Is climate change now irreversible? Have we not lived with many of these risks for generations? Perhaps the bigger question is: why do we keep learning the same lessons the hard way? So let us not wait for the next flood, the next drought or the next typhoon to remind us of what we already know. We know the risks. We know where vulnerable communities are situated. We know what needs to be done to prevent dangers. The question is whether we will do it before people are again standing on rooftops looking for rescue, or farmers are watching their crops being wiped out by floodwater.

Isn’t it ironic that communities are repeatedly asked to prepare for disasters while the very systems responsible for protecting them may themselves be unprepared, inefficient or compromised?

In the end, preparedness is not only about surviving the next flood or drought. It is also about making sure that the institutions and politicians in every city, municipio, province and district entrusted to protect our people are doing their job—not yesterday, not tomorrow, but consistently. They should have been preparing long ago, and each day should simply be about improving and perfecting the plan.

In the meantime, I still have hope that this paradox of drought and rain, like many contradictions in life, can be managed—and that good forces will prevail.